Thinking about the coronavirus pandemic-quarantine. Additional conditions for Argentina's economic growth

Abstract

The essay is necessarily preliminary, because it is outlined during a 'critical juncture', the still very particular process of a global crisis that occurs as a consequence of the pandemic of an unpublished virus, and of the various quarantines that derive from it as probable mitigators of your initial damages. The test, in the Argentine case and for the year 2020, in which our country will have a drop in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) that will probably be -15\%, in a context of an economy that already in the previous 2018 biennium -2019 contracted by almost -5\% and facing high uncertainty in the future, it has two main objectives. The first of them is to contribute to proposing the debate about whether the appearance of the coronavirus called COVID-19 has sufficient amounts and characteristics to be considered a mega disruptive and global event? The second objective, facing a very brief and necessary review of the main world events of the last 2 centuries, is to ask ourselves about what will be the most likely evolution of the rest of the current 21st century? And what will be its impact in our country? Fundamentally in terms of the additional restrictions that it would impose on their future possibilities of economic growth.